MINTQONMarkets can stay strong for a long time even while parts of the economy are clearly slowing. That is what makes recession talk difficult to trade.
I am watching credit, unemployment, consumer spending and company guidance more than the word “recession” itself. One weak number is noise, but several of them moving together starts to matter.
Do you think markets are too relaxed about the downside, or is the soft-landing case still the better one?